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A VERY BAD DEAL SO FAR
Posted by Kassie Siegel
December 18, 2009, 10:40 a.m.

 

Kassie

BrendanIn the streets of Copenhagen. Photos by Brendan Cummings and Kassie Siegel.

The leaked UNFCCC Secretariat document — concluding that the emissions reductions promised by the United States and other countries would, even if fully realized, still result in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations exceeding 550 parts per million and a global temperature rise of over 3 degrees Celsius — confirms the biggest public secret of the Copenhagen conference: A “successful” conference, as defined by the United States, in the real world translates into a death sentence for small island nations, coral reefs, polar bears, and much of the world’s biodiversity.

And the 550 ppm and 3 degree prediction of the Secretariat is likely optimistic; independent scientists conclude the current proposals in Copenhagen would take us to over 750 ppm and 3.9 degrees of warming.

We’ve known since the Obama administration announced its proposal of only cutting CO2 by less than 4 percent below 1990 levels by 2020 that, unless the United States substantially changes its tune, Copenhagen could not in any rational sense of the word be deemed a “success.” The IPCC estimates that reductions of 25 to 40 percent below 1990 levels are needed by 2020 to avoid greater than 2 degrees of warming, while cuts of more than 45 percent are likely needed to get on a trajectory for the only scientifically and ethically credible target: 350 ppm. While more than 100 countries have endorsed a 350 ppm target, the United States has not. And while not openly calling for a 750 ppm (or even 550 ppm) target, the United States’ posture in Copenhagen is a de facto endorsement of such a result.

Barack Obama is one of the smartest individuals ever to hold the office of the presidency in the United States. Presumably, he is fully aware of the consequences of the emission scenarios advanced by his negotiating team in Copenhagen. For the United States to put on the negotiating table a proposal that, by all reasonable and rational accounts, would result in the death or displacement of millions of people and the extinctions of hundreds of thousands (perhaps millions) of species is unacceptable.

While many argue that a deal here based on the current reduction targets would be better than nothing and/or a good start, the problem is that if we are to save the Arctic; save the island nations; prevent further catastrophic impacts in Africa; and save the planet’s plants, animals, and the ecosystems on which we all depend, we need to act swiftly and decisively. We stand at the precipice of climactic tipping points beyond which a climate crash will be out of our control. We cannot take half-measures and wait until after 2020 to begin deep emissions reductions.

I agree with Archbishop Desmond Tutu, who said that it is better to have no deal than to have a bad deal. The leaked UNFCC document further confirms that what has been proposed so far in Copenhagen is a very bad deal for all of us.

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Polar bears on Hudson Bay © Brendan Cummings